At least, West African leaders at ECOWAS have intimated a military intervention in Niger would be the last resort following the initiation of diplomatic talks with General Tchiani and his men.
ECOWAS seek to secure the release of ousted president, Mohammed Bazoum, and a potential roadmap for the return to democracy in Niger – the latest of France’s colonies to revolt, yet again.
But should an armed attack have been on the table in the first place?
Niger has been a dear place of abode for the United States and former masters, France. A landlocked nation, the country is encompassed at all sides by neighboring Africa neighbors including Nigeria and Algeria. By dint of its strategic location, Niger is a near-perfect pitch for any armed confrontation with and a fight against terror groups such as the JNIM coalition originally comprised four al Qaeda-linked militant Islamist groups – who have seen their presence blow out of proportion in the Sahel region through vicious violence perpetrated against locals and armed forces of countries within the West African sub-region. This has made Niger very instrumental to the West in its ‘fight’ against terror, especially for France who have had to pack bags and baggage from Mail.
The post-coup rhetoric has been that Bazoum was a puppet for the West. Looking at the apparent disruption the ousting has caused for USA and France, as well as the rather strange and vexed response and interest the two western powers have invested in the past week, it would be the case.
Coups happen, and not many have displeased the West as much as Tchiani’s coup. Not even those the USA and France have orchestrated themselves.
This brings us to the important point of Cold War factions. The Cold War was a prolonged ‘beef’ between the Soviet Union and the United States, that usually played out by means of violence, assassination, and diplomatic rows within the jurisdiction of other countries right after the Second World War. And so, long after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, another Cold War is brewing. Or has been ongoing for some years now – possibly since Crimea.
The Russian Federation has been at war with Ukraine following its military invasion of the western-backed regime of Zelenskyy. As many trolls on X would put it, an ‘operation’ set to take only ‘three days’ is nearing two years now. However, Putin has maintained that his goals in Ukraine are met despite the unwavering support of the European Union and the United States for Ukraine.
Many observers believe this is a proxy war – between the United States and Russia.
To identify a semblance of a Cold War, there must be a replication of this apparent struggle between the two super powers not just in Europe but in other regions around the globe, and most importantly, it must be really certain that indeed both Russia and the USA are involved in any minute sense, manner, and degree.
In Niger, despite reports to dismiss any sort of relevance, many supporters of the coup hoisted and waved the flag of Russia. Without confirming any thought on a possible affiliation with Russia by these events, it is necessary to place a bit more substance to the arrangements at higher levels of power in recent days.
The new Sankara, Ibrahim Troare, as hailed and celebrated for his resounding speech at the Russia-Africa Summit, is charged about the prospects of military alliance capable of resisting the intimidation of France and the United States, and ECOWAS. In a joint statement of solidarity, the military leaders of Burkina Faso, Mail, and Niger have reiterated a commitment to stand together against any form of military intervention or attack against Niger.
It is no misapprehension to ignore any sort of Russia affiliation with the coup-makers in Niger just because some locals displayed the Russian flag but it would be injurious and negligent to dismiss any tangible involvement of Russia. The armies of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger combined would not be able to match the calvary from Nigeria not to talk of the ECOWAS collective – not in number and not in might.
What then would be the instigating factor for the three nations to believe in their capacity to resist any form of military intervention or mount any successful military opposition against an ECOWAS army in Niger? These convictions can only be bolstered by the backing of Russia. The Russia-Africa Summit was not all flop.
The two superpowers, Russia and USA are set to fight in Africa, this time around, in full glare in Niger. Not just Wagner deepening its roots and canvassing grounds against the West in the Sahel.
Any form of military confrontation between ECOWAS and the coup-alliance would realize a replication of the war in Ukraine – building and fanning the furnace of a Cold War, this time around, heading towards a Third World War.
The role of ECOWAS leaders is to understand that in the similar fashion that Nigeriens have displayed utmost disgust for French dominance and control over its government, the entire populace of the sub-region, and by extension, of all of Africa abhor any forms of neocolonialism.
The African people do not just adore the bravado of military regimes for adoring sake, but because any forms of military coups are represented as a another victory step in the prolonged struggle to overcome the scars of foreign domination through colonialism and neocolonialism. This is, especially as democratic governments have not only been unable to deliver the social and economic aspirations of their people, but also, have so much appeared to be the channel through which the West continues to screw Africa.
More so, any form of military intervention in Niger by ECOWAS would be a display of dancing to the tune of both the West and Russia – who continue the pursuit to establish absolute dominance, regardless of who takes the fall.
ECOWAS should simply go into to Niger to negotiate for the release of Bazoum, work with the military regime on fast tracking a framework for return to civilian rule, whiles most importantly develop systems to manage and prevent to occurrence of military coup d’etats. This starts with African leaders committing themselves to the ideals of democracy, first and foremost.
Lansah Lawrence 